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It was eight weeks ago when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered while Unai Emery berated him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. At that point, with the team endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained whether his performances were an indicator or the source for Villa's more general malaise.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

In the latest match, in contrast, the sideline response proved to be far more favourable. After the England international drilled in his second to reinstate Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician tore off his coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. Villa continued to a 10th successive win and after failing to win any of their first six games, are somehow just three points off pace-setters Arsenal.

Is This Team Legitimate Challengers?

It remains a rather hard proposition to answer. History, the perceived status of the club, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they have not been completely commanding in many games, even as the positive results have accumulated.

Per the data, twice all season has the side registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a side who have put together ten consecutive victories, Villa appear strangely fragile – however right now the tight outcomes are going in their favour.

The Rogers Recipe

The prevailing tactic looks like to exchange chances with an opponent and wait for their talisman to bail them out with two clinical strikes. It happened against Leeds, it happened in London, and again when facing the Red Devils.

Rogers' first goal stemmed from a superb shot, curled right inside the upright from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal acted as a slight scruffier version of the opener as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

How Long Can This Continue?

Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opponents registered more efforts and more efforts on goal. The team has secured their last eight victories by a single goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those games.

Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge the club will encounter as the season progresses. The forward, surely, cannot maintain blasting the football into the net's top corner forever.

A Case for Belief

Maybe there exists an alternative path whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs might still find their top level.

• The main striker could start scoring again.
• Jadon Sancho might become the performer he resembled during his peak.
• The defensive duo are due to return from injury, fortifying a periodically leaky backline.

This could contain the potential for a sustained push, but they surely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.

Relishing the Unlikely

Yet, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And most definitely two months ago, nobody thought Rogers by the end of the year would be leading a championship pursuit while looking like a vital player for the national team.

This remarkable period must be cherished for the very reason that it seems so surreal. When the match-winner positioned himself before the North End when the game ended leading the celebrations, he appeared to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.