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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with American diplomats could be completed in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys will present the terms to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the conflict remains uncertain, especially given the Russian lack of participation from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature is expected to consider defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements might be ready “imminently.” Subsequently, the United States would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, leading to high-level meetings possibly this weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five key agreements. Some of them concern binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, approved and endorsed by the United States Congress,” the president remarked to the press. He stated that these assurances would “mirror article 5” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, American representatives did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the security package or what would happen if Moscow attempted to seize additional territory after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. does not intend to place boots on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European nations said in a unified declaration that troops from a “allied coalition” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, including through operating inside Ukraine.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would serve as assurances matching Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Moscow is near agreeing to the kind of arrangement under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Russian government stated it had not received the details of the proposals on security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to forces of Nato countries operating in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators continues to be the territorial question. A key demand involves Kyiv ceding the areas of the Donbas region it still holds, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. As is known, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president said after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, headed by two senior advisors, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russia would not advance, with the resulting zone established as “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use police and national guard units rather than the military in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” said Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a compromise solution like a special economic area could be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The major impediment is likely to be when the proposals are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face precisely the situation we are experiencing on our plane right now – turbulence,” said Zelenskyy, making the statement as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply additional armaments if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the United States,” he concluded.