🔗 Share this article Daily Homicides in the nation Fall 37% During the Sheinbaum Administration, As per Official Data The average count of everyday homicides monthly in Mexico has decreased by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by new government data. Nevertheless, security specialists have advised that homicide numbers might not signal better national safety. Marked Decline in Per-Day Averages Officials reported an mean of close to 55 murders a day in the month of November compared with roughly 87 when the President began the presidency in September of last year. This announcement was delivered by the head of the nation's national safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily news conference on Tuesday. “The result in killings that have been recorded in these months is remarkably significant,” Sheinbaum stated, noting that the previous month the least amount of homicides were documented for any single November in the past decade. Historical Background and Official Strategy Violent cartel rivalries, coupled with the government’s highly military efforts to combat the cartels, have led to Mexico’s murder rate soar in recent times. The rate reached a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the country’s official data agency. That resulted in Mexico a homicide figure over four times greater than that of the United States. Since then, killings have been on the downward trend, declining to 33,550 the previous year. The President has attributed her national security strategy for an apparently steeper decline in homicides in the current year. At a news briefing in the summer, the President stated: “There is a strategy, there is monitoring of the plan, and we have detailed tracking municipality by municipality in some cases. The strategy is effective. And we have to keep working at it every day.” The key components of Sheinbaum’s security plan include: Strengthening Mexico’s national guard. Advancing information gathering and investigative efforts. Enhanced collaboration between various departments. Expert Warnings and Statistical Limitations But, public safety analysts warned that focusing solely on homicide data to draw a conclusion of pacification was problematic. This is particularly true given the rise in different criminal activities such as forced disappearances. “It would be excellent information if this was a reduction, but I think we shouldn't just look at the homicide numbers and say: ‘Alright, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's cartels. “I would be guardedly optimistic.” As reported by the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall dropped by more than 20% in the first 10 months of the current year relative to the identical period last year. But, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in some states have increased by up to 200%. “Data on murders is not valid for gauging the context of public insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and prosecutors who lack the ability or the will to properly identify and classify bodies. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the capability to mask violence through disappearances.” Vargas pointed out that using monthly means of everyday killings was similarly an issue because it could mask days when there were particularly high levels of murders. “Relying on the daily mean renders high peaks of violent crime invisible,” he stated. Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Progress Where the administration can point to the effectiveness of its security strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 individuals were detained between October 2024 and this past November for major crimes, according to government data. Over 20,000 weapons were taken and 311 tons of drugs intercepted. “The former US president can't claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical degrading of criminal groups. It’s extremely politically beneficial,” said Vargas. Ongoing Unrest and Societal Frustration However notwithstanding these actions, Mexico remains grappling with extreme violence, with several states in the grip of cartel-driven conflict. Recently there was a notable killing of a popular mayor in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders killed in the last year. A short time later, many thousands of young people demonstrated in Mexico City and across the country to express their frustration at corruption and narco-violence. “The government presents [data] in a manner to build a story of security. Politically it’s highly potent, socially it’s highly debatable,” the analyst concluded.
The average count of everyday homicides monthly in Mexico has decreased by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by new government data. Nevertheless, security specialists have advised that homicide numbers might not signal better national safety. Marked Decline in Per-Day Averages Officials reported an mean of close to 55 murders a day in the month of November compared with roughly 87 when the President began the presidency in September of last year. This announcement was delivered by the head of the nation's national safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily news conference on Tuesday. “The result in killings that have been recorded in these months is remarkably significant,” Sheinbaum stated, noting that the previous month the least amount of homicides were documented for any single November in the past decade. Historical Background and Official Strategy Violent cartel rivalries, coupled with the government’s highly military efforts to combat the cartels, have led to Mexico’s murder rate soar in recent times. The rate reached a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the country’s official data agency. That resulted in Mexico a homicide figure over four times greater than that of the United States. Since then, killings have been on the downward trend, declining to 33,550 the previous year. The President has attributed her national security strategy for an apparently steeper decline in homicides in the current year. At a news briefing in the summer, the President stated: “There is a strategy, there is monitoring of the plan, and we have detailed tracking municipality by municipality in some cases. The strategy is effective. And we have to keep working at it every day.” The key components of Sheinbaum’s security plan include: Strengthening Mexico’s national guard. Advancing information gathering and investigative efforts. Enhanced collaboration between various departments. Expert Warnings and Statistical Limitations But, public safety analysts warned that focusing solely on homicide data to draw a conclusion of pacification was problematic. This is particularly true given the rise in different criminal activities such as forced disappearances. “It would be excellent information if this was a reduction, but I think we shouldn't just look at the homicide numbers and say: ‘Alright, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's cartels. “I would be guardedly optimistic.” As reported by the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall dropped by more than 20% in the first 10 months of the current year relative to the identical period last year. But, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in some states have increased by up to 200%. “Data on murders is not valid for gauging the context of public insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and prosecutors who lack the ability or the will to properly identify and classify bodies. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the capability to mask violence through disappearances.” Vargas pointed out that using monthly means of everyday killings was similarly an issue because it could mask days when there were particularly high levels of murders. “Relying on the daily mean renders high peaks of violent crime invisible,” he stated. Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Progress Where the administration can point to the effectiveness of its security strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 individuals were detained between October 2024 and this past November for major crimes, according to government data. Over 20,000 weapons were taken and 311 tons of drugs intercepted. “The former US president can't claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical degrading of criminal groups. It’s extremely politically beneficial,” said Vargas. Ongoing Unrest and Societal Frustration However notwithstanding these actions, Mexico remains grappling with extreme violence, with several states in the grip of cartel-driven conflict. Recently there was a notable killing of a popular mayor in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders killed in the last year. A short time later, many thousands of young people demonstrated in Mexico City and across the country to express their frustration at corruption and narco-violence. “The government presents [data] in a manner to build a story of security. Politically it’s highly potent, socially it’s highly debatable,” the analyst concluded.