🔗 Share this article A Forecasting Platform User Made $Nearly Half a Million on Bets Predicting the Ouster of Maduro. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. An individual made nearly half a million dollars on the ouster of the Venezuelan leader immediately preceding it was publicly declared, leading to inquiries about the possibility of profiting from non-public details of the US operation. Sudden Shift in Wagers Bets placed on the crypto-platform, an online prediction market, that Nicolás Maduro would be out of power by the month's conclusion increased in the hours before Donald Trump stated on Saturday that Maduro had been taken into custody. A particular user, which became a member last month and took four positions, all on the Venezuelan situation, made more than $436K from a starting bet of over $32,000. Who placed the bet is a mystery. The anonymous account had only a string of letters and numbers for identification. Market Signals Before News Break Platform data shows that traders put the odds of a political change at just under 7% in the midday period of the prior Friday. Yet the odds had jumped to over 10% by late Friday night and skyrocketed in the early hours of January 3rd, indicating a sharp shift in market sentiment just before the social media post was made. "This specific wager has all the hallmarks of a trade based on confidential knowledge," commented an industry expert. Several of other traders also earned large payouts from similar wagers. Legal Questions Intensifies Some lawmakers are starting to take note. A bill presented on the start of the week seeks to ban government employees from placing bets on forecasting platforms if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a wager. Industry Context Event-driven betting sites have grown significantly in recent years, with users able to wager on everything from sports outcomes to politics. This sector were examined under the last presidential term. However it has experienced less resistance during the Trump presidency. Trading on insider information is a crime in the traditional financial markets, but there are fewer regulations in the event betting arena. A spokesperson for another major platform said their site "strictly forbids insider trading of any form."